Last week, the Katni Masoor Dal market witnessed a notable surge, with the opening price on 13 November 2023 at Rs 6,475/quintal and closing at Rs 6,500/quintal on 18 November 2023. The surge was attributed to sustained demand for Masoor and Masoor Dal, resulting in an increase of Rs. 25/quintal during the previous week.
In Delhi, the prices of domestic Masoor experienced a marginal increase of Rs 50/quintal. The limited supply coupled with an improvement in demand played a pivotal role in driving up the prices.
A major factor contributing to the limited supply is the substantial procurement of Masoor stock by the government. So far, NAFED/NCCF has purchased over 4 lakh tons of imported Masoor, and the government plans to acquire a total of 7 lakh tons. This has resulted in restricted availability for private sales at the port.
The total Masoor import estimate for November-December 2023 is 2.10 lakh tons, comprising 1.5 lakh tons from Canada and 0.60 lakh tons from Australia.
Considering the government’s ambitious plan to purchase around 7 lakh tons of Masoor, there is a looming possibility of a tight supply in the private sector. If this materializes, the market could experience a supply shortage, potentially leading to a significant strengthening of Masoor prices by Rs. 200-300/quintal.
The sowing of Masoor is currently 15% ahead nationwide. Unlike the previous year when sowing was delayed, there is a concerted effort to prioritize sowing this year. Despite experts anticipating a slightly lower total sowing compared to 2022, the government’s extensive procurement of imported Masoor may offset this, resulting in a positive outlook for the market.
As the Masoor Dal market experiences fluctuations, the interplay of government procurements, port stocks, and import estimates becomes crucial. Market participants must remain vigilant, as the potential for a supply shortage poses both challenges and opportunities.