Why Global Crude Oil Prices May Rise Further?

The world of the energy market is once again buzzing with activity as global crude oil prices show signs of a potential surge. This price rally not only impacts the oil industry dynamics but also carries significant implications for economies worldwide.

Key Reasons

• Rising Prices: Recent oil market developments have caught the attention of investors and analysts alike. Crude oil prices have witnessed a 7% rally, propelling them to their highest levels in seven months. However, this upward trajectory is not merely a short-lived blip on the radar; there are compelling reasons to believe that these price gains could be sustained.
• Aramco’s Ambitious Share Sale: One of the headline-grabbing factors contributing to this oil price optimism is Aramco’s ambitious plan. Aramco, the world’s largest oil refiner and a major player in the energy sector is reportedly gearing up for a significant move. The company is said to be planning a whopping $50 billion share sale. What makes this development even more intriguing is the timing, it comes precisely when crude oil prices are anticipated to experience a substantial uptick.
• Higher Oil Prices, Better Valuation: Why would a massive share sale by Aramco impact oil prices? The answer lies in the relationship between oil prices and the valuation of the company’s shares. For Aramco, higher oil prices translate into better valuations for its shares. The logic is straightforward, When oil prices are high, the company’s profits and revenues soar, making its shares more attractive to investors. Saudi Arabia, which owns Aramco, had previously postponed the share sale, citing unfavourable market conditions. However, the recent resurgence in oil prices appears to have rekindled their interest in going forward with the sale. As of June 2023, Aramco’s profits had experienced a 38% decline, falling to $30.1 billion due to the pressure on crude oil prices.
• Rising Oil Price Expectations: The bullish sentiment surrounding oil prices is not limited to Aramco’s plans. Several factors indicate that oil prices could continue to climb. Barclays, a global financial services company, predicts that crude oil could reach as high as $97 per barrel by 2024. In August 2023, the Saudi Press Agency reported that Saudi Arabia intends to reduce oil output by a billion barrels per day. Goldman Sachs also joins the chorus of optimism, forecasting oil prices to reach $93 per barrel within the next 12 months. The rationale behind these predictions stems from various factors, including production cuts and increasing global demand.
  

Inflation Conundrum Implications

While high oil prices may be a boon for Aramco and oil-exporting nations, they present a complex challenge for countries like India. India heavily relies on oil imports, with over 80% of its crude oil consumption being met through imports. When global crude oil prices rise, it has a cascading effect on domestic fuel prices.

A surge in crude oil prices translates directly into higher petrol and diesel prices, contributing to inflationary pressures. India, already grappling with food inflation due to erratic rains and supply constraints, faces an additional burden if crude oil prices continue to climb. The Indian government, acutely aware of the inflationary impact, has expressed its desire to reduce fuel prices to alleviate the burden on consumers and voters. However, a sustained spike in crude oil prices could complicate these efforts and strain the exchequer’s finances.

Reserve Bank of India’s Role

Amid these economic challenges, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains vigilant. The central bank has been resolute in its commitment to curbing inflation, even if it entails raising interest rates. India’s inflation target, as set by the RBI, is 6% at worst. Should inflation continue to surge, the RBI may resort to interest rate hikes- a move that equity markets typically view with caution. As India grapples with these multifaceted economic pressures, the path forward remains uncertain.

OFB’s Insight 

The confluence of factors, including Aramco’s share sale plans, production cuts, and global demand, points towards a potential rise in crude oil prices. While this may bolster the fortunes of oil giants, it poses complex challenges for oil-importing nations like India. The delicate balance between economic growth, inflation control, and energy security will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of global crude oil prices in the coming months.