Primary TMT Market in February: Stagnant Trend, Recovery Outlook Uncertain

The primary TMT market in India has been experiencing a stagnant phase during February 2024, marked by stability and low demand. However, the latter part of the month showed chances of a potential uptick in both TMT prices and demand.

Primary TMT Market Trend Throughout the Month

In the initial half of February, the domestic market witnessed no signs of recovery in pricing and demand for primary TMT. Offers remained relatively stable, with no significant price adjustments. Secondary steel players anticipated a potential price revision in the latter half of the month to strategize their pricing policy accordingly. However, these expectations were unmet, as primary steel players neither increased nor decreased primary TMT market prices.

TMT Price Movements & Inventory Trends

Since the first half of February, trade-level prices for primary TMT experienced a decline of approximately Rs. 500-1,500 per ton in major markets. Whereas, the week-on-week TMT offers remained stable. Meanwhile, inventories for blast furnace route (primary) TMT decreased slightly. Many primary TMT plants have gone through production cuts to address supply-demand imbalances. 

The primary finished longs segment has noticed a slight increase in weekly demand because of lesser inventory pressure on plants. Trade-level prices of primary TMT dropped w-o-w amid slow buying interest.

Primary TMT Demand Dynamics

While demand for primary TMT remains subdued in the retail sector, a noteworthy recovery has been observed in the infrastructure project segment. Primary TMT buyers are currently focusing on projects nearing completion, adopting a cautious approach until new projects are announced post-elections later this year.

Scheduled Maintenance Shutdowns

Several major primary TMT manufacturers are undergoing scheduled maintenance repair shutdowns. JSW’s Dolvi Plant is planning a 10-15 day maintenance shutdown, while JSPL’s facility has already initiated maintenance repairs. Industry experts anticipate potential impacts on material supply in the market, likely leading to increased primary TMT demand in the coming days.

Market Outlook for Primary TMT Industry

The primary TMT market is likely to notice significant changes in the upcoming months. Demand in the retail sector is stagnant while a recovery in infrastructure projects may provide some support for a short period. The supply chain disruptions due to scheduled maintenance shutdowns may also impact the domestic steel market. Primary TMT buyers and industry players are advised to closely monitor these developments for strategic decision-making.