Indonesian Thermal Coal Prices Fall Amid Low Buying Interest

Thermal coal prices have dropped this week due to low buying interest in the market. Indonesian thermal coal exports also decreased by 10% month-on-month in January. This has led to a further fall in prices, with Indian buyers looking for more competitive offers from other destinations.

Indonesian Thermal Coal Prices

Low-calorific value (CV) coal prices are assessed at $52/t FOB, down $5 w-o-w, while high-CV coal prices are at $121/t FOB. Indian buyers at Kandla port were heard offering 3400 GAR coal at around INR 5,600-5,700/t, however deals were concluded at INR 5,400-5,500/t levels for bulk offers.

Declining Demand

The supply-demand dynamics of the thermal coal market may change depending on weather patterns in Indonesia and infrastructural bottlenecks. Indonesian thermal coal exports decreased by 10% m-o-m to 24.4 million tonnes (mnt) in January 2023 as against 27.05 mnt in December, CoalMint data show. Indian imports of Indonesian thermal coal stood at 5.07 mnt in January, up 9% m-o-m.

Outlook

Indonesian thermal coal prices are expected to fall further amid low demand and declining buying interest. As global coal prices correct from elevated levels along with moderation in overall inflation and energy prices, pressure will mount on Indonesian coal prices too. Also, given competitive offers from other destinations, prices may remain subdued.

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