China in Talks To Lift Informal Ban on Australian Coking Coal: Impact and Outlook

It seems that there has been tension between China and Australia in their trade relationship, with China imposing an informal ban on certain Australian exports, including coal, in 2020. However, recent reports suggest that relations between the two countries may be improving, leading to speculation that the ban on coal exports may be lifted. While this could potentially benefit Australian coal exports, as Australia accounts for 59% of global seaborne trade in metallurgical coal (also known as coking coal), it is unlikely that the situation will revert to what it was before the ban was implemented. This is because the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed global coal trade flows, leading to increased imports of Russian coal by China at lower prices, while Australian coal has gained popularity in other markets such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Additionally, China has been increasing its domestic coal production, which may reduce its need for imports from Australia.

Outlook 
Yes, it is mentioned in the text that global demand for steel and thermal coal has been slow due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recession, which could affect the prospects for Australian coal exports to China. Additionally, it is noted that Australian coal may be uncompetitive compared to other countries’ coal and that China is increasing its domestic production, which could reduce its need for imports from Australia. As a result, it is uncertain whether Australian coal exports to China will resume significantly in the future.

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