Chinese Steel Market Recovery: Opportunities And Risks

The Chinese steel market has experienced recovery over the week, with improvement in spot and futures steel prices. This positive trend can be attributed to the macroeconomic rebound and the peak consumption season. However, there are also potential dangers for the futures market if the price increases too quickly.

Domestic Demand

The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of recovering consumer spending and increasing domestic demand as a top priority this year. Encouraging consumption may be the main engine of economic expansion. The steel industry’s downstream sectors, especially construction, are also recovering. The Yangtze River Delta region’s ongoing projects have significantly improved year over year, boosting the overall steel sector.

Automobile Sector And Downstream Finished Goods

The automobile sector has experienced a cycle of price reduction promotions on the downstream side, with several auto brands recently launching campaigns to reduce prices for a short time. The efficient destocking of downstream finished goods is also significant in supporting steel output and growth in demand.

Inventory And Demand

In the steel sector, the February 2023 spike in supply did not exert pressure on the inventory. Instead, the inventory indicated an inflection point and dropped due to increasing demand. The steel stockpile in 29 important Chinese cities was 15.5709 million tons on 10 March 2023, down 398,200 tons from the previous week and down 2.5% week over week. Rebar and hot-rolled inventory have also experienced a decrease, indicating a rise in demand.

Insight 

Steel mills have raised prices over the last two days to account for the rise in the cost of raw materials. Yet, the peak in steel demand has not yet been reached, and policies to stabilize the real estate sector since the second part of last year has also started to show results. While there is still a basis for steel prices to climb due to improved supply and demand, it is crucial to consider the effects of variations in iron ore prices. The steel market recovery presents opportunities for growth, but it is important to proceed with caution to avoid risks.

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