The Impact Of Imported Coal Prices on Primary Steel Production and Textile Dying Mills in India
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Coking coal is majorly used in primary steel production, and over the past 2-years the cost curve of Indian steel producers has edged up, especially in primary mills. 85% of the coking coal requirement of Indian primary steel manufacturers is met through imports, a large part of it from Australia due to its hard, low-ash property. Australian premium coking coal prices climbed to over $300/t CNF India in November 2022 from $135/t CNF in January 2021 – up by 122%. The prices have been affected by several factors, In 2020, an informal ban on Australian coal purchases by China led to an increase in demand from Indian importers, while the Russia-Ukraine war and natural gas supply scarcity in the EU also contributed to a rally in prices through May 2022.
Imported coking coal prices usually make up about 40% of the cost of primary steel production for domestic mills in India, but during times of price surge, like when prices hit over $650/t, this can increase to about 60%. The Australian government predicts coking coal prices to average $230/t by 2024 from $377/t in 2022, but this may be affected by supply disruptions and uncertain Chinese demand.
On the other hand, due to the short supply of lignite coal and imported coal on account of the Russia-Ukraine war and low production from mines in Gujarat, textile-dying mills are taking a blow, and some are forced to shut down in Gujarat. GMDC (Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation) authorities to raise the supply and reduce the prices of lignite coal to help the dying mills.
Given that coking coal prices are not anticipated to fall below $230-240/t soon, and govt is in no mood to increase lignite coal production sooner, it looks like they will continue to exert pressure on the margins and business of primary domestic steel manufacturers and dying mills owners. As a result of the positive prognosis for raw resources, primary domestic steel manufacturers and dying mill owners may increase prices in order to stay afloat in the future.
Also Read:- Muted Demand For Coal Pulls the Coal Prices Down On Improved Coal Production.
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